We are currently in the last leg of lockdown 2.0 which was announced by the Prime Minister on 14th April 2020. As we look back, let us understand what the situation would have been had the lockdown not been announced a month ago and how that would have impacted the number of coronavirus cases in India.
When the first lockdown was declared, India had 500 Covid-19 cases. The average growth everyday was at 21.6% as of March 24.
Due to the lockdown that rate has come down to 8.1%. If the lockdown had not been announced, the number of coronavirus cases in India would have reportedly crossed 2 lakh by now. That would be 9 times more than what it is currently. The real number of cases as of now are more than 30,000.
If India continues with a growth rate of 8.1%, it is projected that the number of cases will increase to 40,000 by the end of next week, to almost 70,000 in a fortnight and by the end of May, it will be approximately 2.5 lakh.
If there is any ray of hope in these scary developments, it is states like Kerala that have the lowest growth rate at 1.8%. The strategies adopted by the state to a huge extent have helped curb the virus.
Lower numbers can bring India’s overall growth rate to 6% and this will reduce the number of cases to 1.3 lakh. If the rate reduces further to 5% then the cases would not even cross a lakh.
As a measure to tackle the serious spread of the virus, the home ministry has made four more inter-ministerial central teams (IMCTs) to identify the cause for emerging hotspots in Ahmedabad and Surat in Gujarat. Even a thorough investigation is taking place in Hyderabad and Chennai.